It’s Tuesday, I’m Nithya Sudhir. I collect words, chase patterns, and write about whatever makes me curious.
Let's start with a flu shot.
A large Midwestern utility company mailed its employees the dates and times of its free flu-shot clinics. Everyone got the same mailer, but some got one extra line: write down when you plan to go.
The standard mailer got 33.1% of employees vaccinated. The extra line got 37.3%.
Same clinics. Same free shot. One blank line!
Black Friday works exactly like those clinics. Everyone knows the date, most people mean to show up, and plenty of them never do. So today, four essays from the last three weeks, all about the same thing. A shopper who picks the hour, keeps the final say, has a reason ready and takes a small bet on their own terms is the shopper most likely to check out.
Black Friday is under four weeks away. Let's get into it.
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How to turn October sign-ups into November orders.
October is when wishlists fill up. Shoppers tap "notify me," save products and join early-access lists, and on paper November looks sold.
Then the sale opens, and a lot of them never show. Black Friday converts about 79% better than a normal day, yet cart abandonment drops by only 1%. On Cyber Monday 2024, it hit 80.25%.
The fix is a blank line. Peter Gollwitzer calls it an implementation intention, a plan with a when, a where and a what. In one study, 35% to 38% of people exercised that week after tracking their habits or reading about the benefits. A third group read the same material, then filled in one sentence naming a day, a time and a place. 91% of them exercised.
SPOKE, the London menswear brand, took the same idea to pre-orders. It sold pieces eight weeks before they reached the warehouse, and the drop hit 97% sell-through in 24 hours. The forecast was 25%.
For BFCM, the shopper's sentence is short: "I'll buy the [product] on [day] at [time] on my [phone or laptop]." Get them to fill in those blanks before the sale!
A shopper with a time in mind still wants a second opinion, and more of them now ask an AI. Shopify says AI-driven traffic and orders to its stores tripled year over year.
Almost half of shoppers trust AI recommendations. Only 2% let it buy for them.
Nobody buys a coat from a description. They buy it from a reflection.
On October 1, ChatGPT gave shoppers one. A Try On button now sits on clothing and accessory listings: upload a selfie, see the piece on yourself, save it to Favorites.
Here's the catch. 45% of shoppers say an AI recommendation raises their trust in a brand, and only 2% are comfortable letting AI make the purchase.
The research explains the gap. In the word-of-machine studies, 60% chose the algorithm's pick as a practical investment, but 76% chose the human's pick for how fun it would be to live in. Taste stays human. Try-on works because the AI only renders the outfit, and the shopper does the judging. Total control. Win-win!
Albertsons plays by the same rule. ChatGPT builds a Safeway cart from a recipe or a list, then sends the shopper to Safeway to check out themselves.
Give the machine the facts. Give the shopper the final say.
Control gets a shopper to the cart. A reason lets them spend without the guilt, and the best reasons can be said out loud to someone else.
The real reasons we buy Halloween candy, and seven ways to put them to work in your store.
Halloween is a $13.5 billion event, and only Christmas sells more candy. (Not surprising!)
Here's the part that gives it away. 62% of adults buy only candy they would eat themselves, and 78% of parents admit to stealing from their kids' stash. Yet the candy is always "for the trick-or-treaters."
Psychologists call it the justification effect. A fun purchase comes with guilt, and a good reason makes the guilt disappear. "It's for the kids" is the perfect alibi.
BFCM runs on the same alibi. Toys, games and snack boxes bought "for the kids" often end up with the adults. Write copy that winks at the buyer and tells them they deserve one too.
The essay has five more reasons, and two of them travel straight into BFCM.
The default effect. In a UK government study of 5,889 shoppers, preselected options made people 60% to 70% more likely to choose the pricier choice. Preselect your best-value bundle.
Anticipated regret. Shoppers imagine how bad not buying will feel, and buy to dodge it. Show an exact arrival date on every product page. 56% of holiday shoppers say accurate delivery dates make them more likely to buy.
With a time, a say and a reason in place, the deal itself can afford a little mystery.
🎁 10,000 mystery boxes, sold out
Why shoppers pay for what they can't see.
Chase Bliss, a boutique guitar pedal brand in Minnesota, sold 10,000 Mystery Boxes at $299 each. Every box held at least one pedal worth $399. Roughly one in four held a pedal that won't officially launch until 2027.
Buyers had no idea which one they'd get. The boxes sold out.
In theory, the guaranteed reward should win. Marketing professors Kelly Goldsmith and On Amir found otherwise. Shoppers promised a surprise gift were often just as keen to buy as shoppers promised Godiva truffles.
Three things sit underneath: reflexive optimism when the stakes are low, the pleasure of the reveal, and the feeling of control that comes with picking. Control is the shakiest of the three, so test it before leaning on it. There's a ceiling too. Soda, gum and magazines suit a gamble. Cars and homes do not.
GothRider, a Montreal coffee roaster, made just 200 Black Friday Mystery Boxes worth $289.99 at 65% off. Shoppers reserved one with a $1 deposit and got an email within 24 hours saying whether they made the cut. Everyone else got their dollar back. Sold out.
For BFCM: guarantee the floor, keep the surprise on add-ons and gifts with purchase, give shoppers a move, and publish complete terms.
A blank line, a selfie, an alibi and a $1 deposit. Four ways of handing the shopper the pen, just before Black Friday asks them to sign.
As always, hit reply if something in here hits home.
See you next week,
Nithya
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