It’s Monday, I’m Nithya Sudhir. I collect words, chase patterns, and write about whatever makes me curious.
This Black Friday, would you gamble on a deal?
Why "up to 50% off" can beat a guaranteed 25%
Last week, a guitar pedal maker in Minnesota sold 10,000 boxes.
Chase Bliss, a boutique guitar pedal brand, brought back its Mystery Box this October. Each box cost $299 and held at least one pedal worth $399.
Buyers didn't know which pedal they'd get. But roughly one in four would find one that won't officially launch until 2027.
The boxes sold out.
Why do customers like to test their luck, and what can brands borrow from it before BFCM?
🤝 This edition is kindly brought to you by Drivepoint
Drivepoint benchmarked Q4 2025 Shopify orders, Amazon orders, and P&Ls from 82 consumer brands against each brand's own January to September.
It covers the decisions you're making right now: how deep to discount, what a new Cyber Week customer is worth 180 days later, and where contribution margin lands after marketing.
One finding to start: A Cyber Week day is worth 2.4 normal days on Shopify, but about 30% of Q4 still lands after Cyber Monday.
Cuts for beauty, food and bev, supplements, home, and apparel.
A sure thing should surely win
In theory, it is best if a shopper takes the guaranteed reward.
A sure 25% off can't disappoint. A mystery deal can. Right?
Yet shoppers don't see it that way.
Marketing professors, Kelly Goldsmith and On Amir asked participants to imagine buying a six-pack of soda with a free gift.
One group was promised Godiva truffles.
Another was promised two Hershey's Kisses.
A third would get one or the other, by chance.
Each group then said how likely they were to buy the soda.
Godiva truffles were the preferred choice. However, the "surprise me" third group was often just as keen to buy the soda as the group promised truffles.
Your thinking, surely a "surprise me" gift can only match the truffles or fall short of them. It can never beat them.
Well, in another Chicago Booth study, participants had two minutes to drink 1.4 liters of water. Some were promised $2. Others were promised $1 or $2, decided by a coin flip.
Yet again, more people finished the water for the uncertain reward.
While some research finds shoppers merely tolerate uncertain promotions, it still is good to understand why.
Why shoppers chase the unknown
Essentially, shoppers default to optimism when little is at stake.
Reflexive positivity.
We expect the best outcome when a promotion is cheap and fun, and we skip working out the odds.
However, when shoppers have to estimate their real chance of getting the better prize, the interest drops sharply.
While optimism sells the mystery, math kills it. So, keep the gamble small enough that nobody reaches for a calculator.
The motivating-uncertainty effect.
Not knowing the prize turns buying into a game.
In one auction, people predicted they would bid more for a bag that surely held four chocolates. They ended up bidding more for a bag that held four or two.
Finding out the prize feels good in itself.
Source: The motivating-uncertainty effect, Coglode
The reveal is part of the reward. So, make the unboxing the moment the shopper finds out.
Illusion of control.
We feel luckier when we make the choice ourselves.
Image Source: Calvin and Hobbes
In Ellen Langer's 1975 study, office workers bought $1 lottery tickets printed as football player cards.
Some picked their own card from a pile, while others were simply handed one.
Just before the draw, Langer offered to buy the tickets back and asked each person to name a price.
The pickers wanted $8.67 on average.
The people handed a ticket asked $1.96.
Even though they knew every ticket had exactly the same odds of winning.
We also see that letting shoppers spin, scratch or pick a box may raise the appeal.
Optimism has a price ceiling, though.
When the stakes get too high, people overthink and the allure of uncertainty fades. For the same reason, soda, gum and magazines are good fits, while cars and homes are poor examples.
What's the most you'd pay for a mystery box from a brand you love?
GothRider turns Black Friday into a raffle
GothRider is a small-batch coffee roaster from Montreal. It started in 2015 in a garage with one drum roaster and now ships across the US and Canada.
Coffee is a low-stakes buy, the exact zone where uncertainty works.
GothRider's Black Friday Mystery Box used that twice.
It hid the contents. The box carried a retail value of $289.99 at 65% off. GothRider said the deal was so good it couldn't share what was inside.
It made getting a box a gamble too. Only 200 boxes existed. Shoppers reserved one with a $1 deposit, and an email within 24 hours confirmed whether they made the cut. Everyone else got their dollar back.
It guaranteed the floor. The stated value was nearly three times the price, so every buyer came out ahead.
The box sold out. The product page now reads "See you next year."
Two small bets, then. A $1 bet to get in, and a mystery once inside. Neither one big enough to make anyone reach for a calculator.
How DTC brands can run a mystery offer this BFCM?
Guarantee the floor. Make every outcome worth more than the price, as Chase Bliss does. The shopper's optimism then has nothing to fear.
Keep it small. Put the uncertainty on add-ons, samples and gifts with purchase, where Goldsmith and Amir found it works best. Keep the hero product's price certain.
Give shoppers a move. A scratch card or a box to pick gives the shopper something to do. Langer's effect is shaky, so brands can test it before relying on it.
Keep the offer simple and the terms complete. Shoppers lose interest when pushed to calculate odds. Brands can still publish full odds and terms while keeping the headline offer easy to read.
Black Friday will be loud with certainty. 25% off, everywhere. At the very least!
Who knows, a little mystery maybe the choice customers prefer.
What do you think about mysteries? Hit reply and let me know!
How's the depth of today's edition?
As always, hit reply if something in here hits home.
See you soon,
Nithya
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