It’s Wednesday, I’m Nithya Sudhir. I collect words, chase patterns, and write about whatever makes me curious.
Every October, early-access lists fill up fast. Shoppers sign up, tap “notify me” and save products to wishlists. On paper, November looks sold.
Then the sale opens, and a large share of those shoppers never show up.
So why do people who clearly want something still fail to buy it? And what can brands do about it before November?
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The gap between the wishlist and the checkout
Black Friday brings shoppers in, and plenty of them stop short of buying.
Conversion rates on Black Friday run about 79% higher than on a normal day, yet cart abandonment drops by only 1%.
In 2024, Black Friday cart abandonment ran between 73% and 78%, and Cyber Monday reached 80.25%. And, in the second half of 2025, cart abandonment climbed to 72.32%, its highest level in recent years.
That leaves a huge gap between the demand in October and the sales in November.
Image Source: Attentive
One blank line, four more points
In a study published in 2011, Wharton behavioral scientist Katherine Milkman and her colleagues worked with a large Midwestern utility company that wanted more of its higher-risk employees to get a flu shot.
The company mailed them the dates and times of its free on-site flu-shot clinics.
Alongside the usual clinic dates and times, some of these mailers carried one extra line. It asked employees to write down the date and time they planned to get their shot.
Employees who received the standard mailer got vaccinated at a rate of 33.1%.
Employees who were asked to write down a date and time got vaccinated at 37.3% — 4.2 percentage points higher.
Employees who were asked to write down a date did better than the standard group.
That’s one solution. But why does that work?
A sale you’ve waited for finally opens, what do you usually do?
The sale has a date. Shoppers need a time.
Black Friday and Cyber Monday work a lot like those flu-shot clinics. Everyone already knows the dates, most people mean to show up, and then, sometimes, they don’t.
The fix is getting each shopper to pick their own moment within them, a specific time when they’ll come back and actually buy.
That can look anything like:
A calendar invite set for the hour early access opens
A cart saved and ready for that hour
A pre-order placed before the sale.
Each one should turn “I’ll probably buy” into “I’ll buy on Tuesday at 9.”
Image Source: Sinch
Why a date changes the decision
Psychologists call the first problem the intention-behavior gap. People mean to act, and then they don’t.
A 2002 study by Sarah Milne, Sheina Orbell and Paschal Sheeran shows how wide that gap can be. They split participants into three groups.
The first group simply tracked how often they exercised.
The second group read about the risks of heart disease and the benefits of exercise. It worked, and their intentions to exercise went up.
The third group read the same material, then completed one extra sentence. “During the next week, I will partake in at least 20 minutes of vigorous exercise on [day] at [time] in [place].”
Between 35% and 38% of the first two groups exercised at least once that week. In the third group, 91% did.
Simply because they filled out that sentence.
Psychologist Peter Gollwitzer calls that sentence an implementation intention.
It’s an if-then plan with three parts, when, where and what. “When it’s Tuesday at 9 and I’m at my desk, I’ll check out the duvet in my cart.”
It works by removing the decision from the moment itself.
The chosen time becomes easier to notice. And because the shopper already decided what to do, the action starts without a fresh round of thinking, doubting or putting it off.
In fact, during the 2008 US presidential primary, a call asking people whether they planned to vote had no significant effect on turnout. But a call asking when and where they would vote, raised turnout by 4.1 percentage points.
For BFCM, the shopper’s version of that sentence is simple. “I’ll buy the [product] on [day] at [time] on my [phone or laptop].”
A brand should get its shoppers to fill in those blanks before the sale.
Pre-ordered and perfectly fitted
Image Source: Spoke
SPOKE is a London menswear brand built around trousers that actually fit. It started with chinos cut in three builds for narrow, regular or roomier thighs, and its flagship Sharps now come in 400 size options.
The challenge. SPOKE had tried pre-orders before to turn interest into sales sooner. Customers showed demand, but a simple “pre-order” label on product pages didn’t convert it, and the brand expected only 25% sell-through based on past attempts.
The solution
SPOKE ran a dedicated presale drop, selling products 8 weeks before they arrived in the warehouse.
Customers committed through a separate pre-order checkout, with email updates after purchase.
Self-service tools let customers manage their pre-orders without contacting the brand.
The result
The presale reached 97% sell-through in 24 hours, against the 25% target.
Sell-through came in 400% higher than the brand predicted, despite the 8-week wait.
SPOKE expanded pre-orders to its evergreen products, so customers can commit to restocks instead of leaving.
Most October dashboards count sign-ups, wishlist adds and early-access registrations. Each one says a shopper wants something. Sure.
But, how many have actually decided to buy, and how many have only decided they’d like to? The flu-shot mailer suggests the difference might come down to one blank line.
What does that blank line look like for you?
How's the depth of today's edition?
I’ll look forward to your answers! Hit reply!
Until next week,
Nithya
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