It’s Wednesday.
Prime Day and back-to-school = a Q4 dress rehearsal
What’s actually working?
Prime Day takeaways
Amazon claimed its “biggest Prime Day ever” with $24.1B in sales (across all retailers)... but early data tells a different story.
→ Day 1 sales dropped 41% YoY for some sellers
→ Shoppers price-checked and jumped to Walmart instead (Walmart saw 24% YoY sales growth, app use jumped 22%)
What people actually bought:
Less TVs, more toothpaste. Dish soap, paper plates, protein shakes.
Beauty brands also won big — many produce domestically and dodged the latest tariff chaos.
Consumer sentiment is soft—but not sinking
U.S. sentiment hit a 5-month high in July, but new tariffs are still driving up prices.
→ Nestlé hinted at more price hikes in H2
→ CNBC found Walmart prices spiked up to 51% between May–July
Back-to-school started early
Over 55% of parents were already done shopping by early July. Retailers responded by stretching sales windows — and marketing what’s staying cheap, not just what’s “on sale.”
Walmart vs. Target
→ Walmart is on offense: bolder logo, faster delivery, big ad biz, and a refreshed brand story
→ Target is under pressure: clunky store ops, unclear DEI messaging, and flat sales
TL;DR
Shoppers aren’t sitting out — they’re just way more intentional. Brands prepping for Q4 are doubling down on email capture, diversified spend, and product storytelling that fits the moment.
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🧵 Quince just hit a $4.5B valuation
The affordable-luxury basics brand is raising $200M, doubling its value from earlier this year.
The play:
Quince ships straight from factories (like Temu or Shein) and keeps margins razor-thin. $50 cashmere sweaters, discounted caviar — it’s DTC for the Costco crowd.
Why investors care:
Iconiq (Zuckerberg and Dorsey’s money manager) is leading the round, betting big on fast, vertically-integrated brands that prioritize ops over branding.
Takeaway:
While most DTCs chase margin via premium storytelling, Quince is scaling by mastering logistics. Mass reach > niche obsession.
Brands are testing ads on WhatsApp
Meta’s starting to roll out ads on WhatsApp — but with very limited targeting, brands are shifting focus from precision to performance creative.
→ Ads appear in the Status tab (like Instagram Stories)
→ Targeting is barebones: language, location, followed Channels
→ CPMs are dirt cheap — as low as $0.10
With less data to work with, brands are emphasizing strong messaging and contextual placement (e.g. time of day or device) to drive results. As one exec put it: “An irrelevant ad is worse than an unviewable one.”
What this means:
Think top-of-funnel. Retail, telco, and CPG brands are using WhatsApp for brand awareness and lead gen — not direct response.
Meta’s also pushing AI agents inside WhatsApp. These can give product recs or route people to a site, all within chat. It’s early, but brands see this as a longer-term play.
The big shift:
As channels get more private and closed-loop, ad creative becomes the targeting. Brands that win here won’t be the most precise — they’ll be the most memorable.
LTK is evolving into a full-blown social platform
Once an affiliate tool, LTK is adding:
→ Public creator profiles
→ Two-way messaging
→ Visual + AI-powered discovery
The goal: become the shopping-first social platform, not just another link hub.
Since its TikTok-style video feed launched, user time in-app jumped 138%. That’s also driving more purchases — video content converts 3–4x better than static.
Why it matters:
Creators get faster payouts and better tools
Brands are spending more for direct, high-intent traffic
LTK is quietly setting itself up as a TikTok alternative if bans materialize
With $6B in projected retail sales this year, LTK wants to own the bridge between social and commerce — before ShopMy or Flip does.
